NBA Win Totals (Rest of Season)

The All-Star break is the unofficial halfway point of the season. This week is when all the trades happening and teams try to position themselves for the playoffs. This week is also when 5Dimes releases their rest of the season win totals. Unlike the preseason win totals, we have a lot more data to work with when making our picks with these and can hopefully make better picks.

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Some teams might decide to tank, others might decide to buy and trades and injuries can change everything, but all we can do is work with what we have now. The odds that 5Dimes released don’t include either the Pelicans or the Kings because the trade changed their futures so dramatically. (I would have been all over that Kings under no matter what the number was.)

(UPDATE: Bovada has added over/under numbers for the Kings (32.5) and Pelicans (37.5).)

To try and figure things out we created this table below. We took each team’s current winning percentage and their Expected Win Percentage. EWP takes the teams points scored and points allowed to try and figure out what they should’ve won.

For instance, Atlanta has a terrible point differential this season. They should be 27-29, but they are actually 32-24. They don’t have to give those wins back, but they shouldn’t be expected to play as well in the second half. On the opposite end, the Raptors should  be 37-20 and the second seed in the East, but instead sit at 33-24.

We then took the projected win percentage and the actual winning percentage and split the difference to make our projections. The results are as follows:

Team W Win% EWP O/U NBAFutures Projected Wins
Atlanta Hawks 32 0.571 0.482 45 43
Boston Celtics 37 0.649 0.606 52 51
Brooklyn Nets 9 0.161 0.212 16.5 15
Charlotte Hornets 24 0.429 0.508 36.5 38
Chicago Bulls 28 0.491 0.473 39.5 40
Cleveland Cavaliers 39 0.709 0.694 55.5 58
Dallas Mavericks 22 0.393 0.406 33.5 33
Denver Nuggets 25 0.446 0.456 37.5 37
Detroit Pistons 27 0.474 0.482 40.5 39
Golden State Warriors 47 0.839 0.869 67.5 70
Houston Rockets 40 0.69 0.722 54.5 58
Indiana Pacers 29 0.509 0.465 40.5 40
LA Clippers 35 0.625 0.644 51 52
Los Angeles Lakers 19 0.328 0.276 28 25
Memphis Grizzlies 34 0.586 0.553 47 47
Miami Heat 25 0.439 0.46 38 37
Milwaukee Bucks 25 0.455 0.511 37.5 40
Minnesota Timberwolves 22 0.386 0.465 32.5 35
New Orleans Pelicans 23 0.404 0.379 32
New York Knicks 23 0.404 0.383 34 32
Oklahoma City Thunder 32 0.561 0.496 44.5 43
Orlando Magic 21 0.362 0.258 30 25
Philadelphia 76ers 21 0.375 0.291 30.5 27
Phoenix Suns 18 0.316 0.306 27.5 26
Portland Trail Blazers 23 0.411 0.395 35.5 33
Sacramento Kings 24 0.421 0.394 33
San Antonio Spurs 43 0.768 0.793 61.5 64
Toronto Raptors 33 0.579 0.655 48.5 51
Utah Jazz 35 0.614 0.683 48.5 53
Washington Wizards 34 0.618 0.607 47.5 50

According to our chart the best bets are:

Utah Jazz Over: This line is crazy low for the Jazz. They have shown themselves to be one of the best teams in the Western Conference led by Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward. They should only get better as Derrick Favors returns to health and George Hill continues to gel with his new teammates. I feel great about this over, even without the chart.

Orlando Magic Under: They just dealt away Serge Ibaka and that might not be all. Does anyone want Jeff Green, Elfrid Payton or Nikola Vucevic? You can have them. The Magic are heading towards another rebuild after the rebuild that they are currently in just failed. What a sad state of affairs in Orlando.

Houston Rockets Over: One of the best teams in the NBA this season and they should only get stronger in the second half. They had a weird January, but now seem to be the team that we thought they were and the rest can only help. James Harden is on a quest for MVP and the way he plays with Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson is the stuff of magic.

Philadelphia 76ers Under: No reason to win…
Los Angeles Lakers Under: Every reason to lose.

Washington Wizards Over: This team definitely passes the eye test and is probably the best bet on the board. They have been excellent this year led by John Wall and Bradley Beal. Those two along with Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat make up on the best starting fives in the league. They should definitely be buying bench help at the deadline which should make them even better. Terrence Jones and Lou Williams have been linked to them. The Wizards should beat this total, especially when you consider they started this season 2-8 and have gone 32-13 since.

Complete odds are below from http://www.5Dimes.com

Charlotte Hornets

CHA regular season wins over 36½  -125 
CHA regular season wins under 36½  -115 

Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE regular season wins over 55½  -175 
CLE regular season wins under 55½  +135 

Detroit Pistons

DET regular season wins over 40½  -125 
DET regular season wins under 40½  -115 

Golden State Warriors

GSW regular season wins over 67½  -150 
GSW regular season wins under 67½  +110 

Houston Rockets

HOU regular season wins over 54½  -140 
HOU regular season wins under 54½  +100 

Los Angeles Clippers

LAC regular season wins over 51  -140 
LAC regular season wins under 51  +100 

New York Knicks

NYK regular season wins over 34  +130 
NYK regular season wins under 34  -170 

Orlando Magic

ORL regular season wins over 30  +105 
ORL regular season wins under 30  -145 

Portland Trail Blazers

POR regular season wins over 35½  -125 
POR regular season wins under 35½  -115 

Atlanta Hawks

ATL regular season wins over 45  -120 
ATL regular season wins under 45  -120 

Boston Celtics

BOS regular season wins over 52  -180 
BOS regular season wins under 52  +140 

Brooklyn Nets

BKN regular season wins over 16½  +150 
BKN regular season wins under 16½  -190 

Chicago Bulls

CHI regular season wins over 39½  -110 
CHI regular season wins under 39½  -130 

Dallas Mavericks

DAL regular season wins over 33½  -150 
DAL regular season wins under 33½  +110 

Denver Nuggets

DEN regular season wins over 37½  -130 
DEN regular season wins under 37½  -110 

Indiana Pacers

IND regular season wins over 40½  -165 
IND regular season wins under 40½  +125 

Los Angeles Lakers

LAL regular season wins over 28  +120 
LAL regular season wins under 28  -160 

Memphis Grizzlies

MEM regular season wins over 47  -130 
MEM regular season wins under 47  -110 

Miami Heat

MIA regular season wins over 38  +100 
MIA regular season wins under 38  -140 

Milwaukee Bucks

MIL regular season wins over 37½  +110 
MIL regular season wins under 37½  -150 

Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN regular season wins over 32½  -110 
MIN regular season wins under 32½  -130 

Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC regular season wins over 44½  -160 
OKC regular season wins under 44½  +120 

Philadelphia 76ers

PHI regular season wins over 30½  -120 
PHI regular season wins under 30½  -120 

Phoenix Suns

PHO regular season wins over 27½  +105 
PHO regular season wins under 27½  -145 

San Antonio Spurs

SAS regular season wins over 61½  -125 
SAS regular season wins under 61½  -115 

Toronto Raptors

TOR regular season wins over 48½  -135 
TOR regular season wins under 48½  -105 

Utah Jazz

UTAH regular season wins over 48½  -120 
UTAH regular season wins under 48½  -120 

Washington Wizards

WAS regular season wins over 47½  -195 
WAS regular season wins under 47½  +155 

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