NBA Draft Lottery Betting Odds

5Dimes has posted a list of betting odds for the top three in the NBA Draft Lottery that takes place next Tuesday. This is a pretty comprehensive list and shows just how hard it is to nail the top three teams in the draft. The 76ers, Lakers and Nets have the best lottery odds of going 1-2-3, but that bet is over 50/1 to come in. There is so many ping pong balls and so many potential orders that this just seems impossible to bet on with any sort of certainty.

There are tons of betting options here, but there are actually some potential outcomes that aren’t even listed. For instance, if you wanted to bet the Milwaukee Bucks to get the number one overall pick, you can’t. The Bucks have just a 1.8% chance of moving to the number one spot and the bookmakers deemed that not worth the potential loss. You also can’t make a bet involving the Chicago Bulls who have just a 0.5% chance of the #1 pick and a 1.8% chance of a top three pick. That makes sense, from an odds perspective, but we have seen these things happen before and we will see them again. The lottery is exactly that.

Complete odds are below. Make a bet on any of these at http://www.5dimes.com Continue Reading…

NBA Round 2 Playoff Series Odds

The first round is done and it’s time for the next round of playoff action. We’re down to just eight teams and the NBA championship is getting even closer. There are some pretty big question marks going forward, mostly having to due with the Warriors and Steph Curry’s knee, but it feels like the top three teams are going to end up where we think they are going to. That being said, anything can happen as we’ve seen with the Clippers and the injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.

We’ve got some great series in this round though and it won’t be easy for any of these teams to move onto the next round. Let’s take a look at the four second round playoff series and the current odds from 5Dimes. Reminder that you can bet any of these at http://www.5Dimes.com

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks +380 (series)
Cleveland Cavaliers -475 (series)

A rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals goes down in round two this year. This will be an interesting one as there was only one game in this series that was decided by less than eight points last year, a Cavs sweep. It feels like the Hawks are a little bit better this year and they have a much better defense, but they still got killed last year with mostly the same cast of characters.

The big question here is if the Cavs can keep playing the type of harmonious basketball they showed in the first round. This team played better together than they have since being assembled in that series against Detroit and if that’s the team the Hawks are facing this could be another sweep. Of course, there is always the threat of a collapse with all of the clashing personalities here.

Toronto Raptors/Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat/Charlotte Hornets

Toronto Raptors -155 (series)
Miami Heat +130 (series)

This should be a fun series. The Raptors completed their goal of the postseason by finally winning a first round playoff series. What do they do now? Are they satisfied with that? Or do they want more? If Lowry and DeRozan shoot like they did in the first round, they will have a really tough time moving on.

The Heat beat the Hornets in probably the toughest first round match-up of the entire playoffs and now get a team that they can absolutely beat. They have the better superstar, the better coach and the better system.

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trailblazers/Los Angeles Clippers

Golden State Warriors -1100 (series)
Portland Trailblazers +750 (series)

This line is about what you would expect it to be. The Blazers are the lowest seed left in the Western Conference and the Warriors, even without Curry for at least the first two games, are still a 73 win team. Before the Clippers injuries, it seemed like the Blazers were exposed and on their way out. The only two guys who could really make a shot were Damion Lillard and CJ McCollum, but neither of them could play great defense to the point where McCollum was benched at one point. A lot of the tricks Portland used to beat LA won’t work here. Klay Thompson is a top notch defender, Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut will be a lot tougher on Portland’s bigs and the Warriors won’t struggle to score like the Clippers did at the end of that series. This should be a four or five game series, tops.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder +255 (series)
San Antonio Spurs -310 (series)

I honestly don’t see this series being as close as this line would indicate. The Spurs have built an all-time great defensive team and the Thunder’s offense was kind of exploited in that last round series against the Dallas Mavericks. Oklahoma City mostly relies on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook getting the ball and doing something awesome with it and I don’t think that will be enough against the Spurs defense. Kawhi Leonard will make life hell for Kevin Durant and I think the Spurs will do their best to close the driving lines for Westbrook who shot below 30% from three this season. The Thunder really struggled in close games down the stretch as well and that is something that the Spurs will feast on in this series.

This is just not a fair match-up from a coaching and defense perspective. Billy Donovan was a great college coach, but he is seriously out of his element in this series against Greg Poppovich.

April 26th, 2016 NBA Playoffs Update

What a difference a week makes. We’re only about nine days into the NBA Playoffs and already the landscape has changed completely.

The Warriors lost Steph Curry to injury and will be missing him for at least two weeks. They should have no problem finishing off the Rockets without him, but it is possible that he could miss a large chunk of their second round series. If the team that plays them gameplans right, this could be a real difficult series for Golden State. Hopefully, he makes it back in time and we aren’t robbed of that Spurs-Warriors Western Conference Finals that this entire season has been building for. The question around Steph Curry’s injury is very real though as they went from -150 at the start of the playoffs to +150 today at Bovada. I still think they are a great bet, but there is a lot more risk involved in that than there was two weeks ago.

It looked like the Clippers would be the team that faced them in the second round and they had to think they had a good chance of beating them without Curry, but that is out the window as well. Chris Paul broke his hand and is most likely out for the rest of the playoffs. There is also the fact that Blake Griffin’s quad will keep him out of the rest of the playoffs as well. Plus, JJ Reddick having a heel issue that should continue to bother him. Thanks to all of these injuries, the Blazers are now in great position to win a first round series. The series odds on this one at 5Dimes are Blazers -135 to win the series compared to the Clippers at -115. Bovada also has Portland at -125. The Blazers are a great bet here when you consider that their back-up point guard is Austin Rivers, maybe one of the biggest drop-offs in the entire league. This line will move fast so grab it while you can.

The other bracket in the West is all locked up with the Spurs and Thunder meeting in the next round starting this weekend. The current line at 5Dimes has the Spurs as a -300 favorite to win the series and the Thunder at +250. Based on the way that the Mavericks played the Thunder and pushed them despite not having anywhere near the same level of talent, this one doesn’t surprise me at all.

In the East, there is only one series sewn up and that was the Cavs beating the Pistons. This is just about as close as a sweep can be and I really think the Pistons could’ve beaten a few of the other teams currently still playing in the East. This will be a fun team to watch going forward and I think they are the biggest beneficiary of a potential Steph Curry injury. Their current championship odds at Bovada have them at +325. Meanwhile, the Cavs will patiently wait for their next round opponent and it could be awhile.

The Hawks and Celtics winner meets the Cavs in the next round and right now it’s anybody’s series. The Celtics could be up 3-1 if not for that Avery Bradley injury, but instead are tied 2-2. The home team has won every game and now the momentum has swung back to the Celtics who have looked fantastic in their last two games. Still, this is basically a best of three series now with two home games for the Hawks. Anything could happen, but home court tends to win out. The series line on this one currently sits at Hawks -265 and Celtics +225 at 5Dimes. A big jump from the start of the playoffs when Atlanta was -165 and Boston was +145.

A similar situation is playing out in the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat series. The home team has won every game through four and none of the games have been very close. It’s been a match-up of hot hands and it’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. Miami opened the series at -150 and now sit at -210 for the last three games. The Hornets moved from +130 to +175. We had this tagged as the closest series heading into the playoffs and it remains that way from a betting perspective.

Finally, we have the Raptors and Pacers. What is it with these Raptors and the playoffs? This is the third year in the row that they’ve been a higher seed and struggled against a lower team. DeMar DeRozan just doesn’t look like himself and they can’t seem to make the adjustments. The Pacers are playing great basketball, led by the hero playoff Paul George, and have gotten some great coaching. Still, it feels like they are overmatched in this series. The Raptors, who opened at -390, are now done to -355. Not a huge jump, but there is doubt. If they lose tonight at home? Look out. The Pacers +295 is intriguing, but unlikely. Then again, what have the Raptors done to prove it’s so unlikely?

NBA Championship Futures – Start of the Playoffs

Way back at the beginning of the season you could’ve taken the Warriors to win the championship at +480. Six months and seventy three wins later and the best odds for them are -150. That was a great bet back then and is still probably a pretty good bet right now. There just hasn’t been many teams that have shown they can hang with them this season and in a seven game series it’s hard to imagine anyone bettering them unless some sort of injury happens to one of their core players. That would really suck if that happened, but we saw it happen last season with the Cavaliers who lost their second and third best players. Then again, as long as it’s not Curry I could almost see the Warriors getting it done. They are just that good and this feels like a crowning of the next great dynasty in the NBA. Time will tell.

If something weird does end up happening to the Warriors then the San Antonio Spurs are probably the next best bet out there. Their defense has just been amazing this season, they have the best coach in all of basketball and Kawhi Leonard is becoming a superstar. In Portland, LaMarcus Aldridge always turned it on for the playoffs and I fully expect them to take the Warriors to at least six games in the Western Conference Finals. You can do worse than taking a flyer on these guys. Just know that it is that, a flyer.

The as of now uncrowned Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers are also a pretty interesting case at +505. They seem like a shoe-in for the NBA Finals and that gives them a better chance of winning the title than just about anyone else in the league outside of the Warriors. If any injury happens and they’re in the Finals, Lebron will smell blood and he will get it done. Hell, he might just do that anyways. I’d probably give them about a 15% chance of beating the Warriors straight up as things are now, but three rounds from now? Who knows? Stranger things have happened and Lebron seems to know that he is running out of time to get this done. As long as they don’t have an injury situation like they did in last year’s playoffs, they have a puncher’s chance.

The only other team I’d really consider taking is the Oklahoma City Thunder at +2050 and that is a straight up bet and a prayer. They have two players who are better than just about anyone else’s two best players and if those guys could somehow combine for 80+ points per game in a series against the Warriors or Spurs, who knows? They 3-12 they are weaker than all of these other teams, but 1-2? They are the best. Never count out the team with the best players. (Unless they are playing for the Warriors.)

Complete NBA Championship Futures odds are below courtesy of 5Dimes. You can bet on any of these at http://www.5Dimes.com.

Golden State Warriors -150
San Antonio Spurs +403
Cleveland Cavaliers +505
Oklahoma City Thunder +2050
Toronto Raptors +3500
Los Angeles Clippers +4100
Boston Celtics +8000
Miami Heat +8000
Atlanta Hawks +10000
Charlotte Hornets +15000
Indiana Pacers +21500
Detroit Pistons +27500
Portland Trail Blazers +27500
Houston Rockets +40000
Dallas Mavericks +50000
Memphis Grizzlies +100000

NBA Playoffs First Round Series Odds

The NBA playoffs are finally here and we couldn’t be more ready. The regular season was great and the Warriors did some amazing things, but this year is all about the playoffs. 73 wins means nothing if you don’t get the ring. There are really some great stories in these playoffs with the ongoing quest of the Warriors, the possible last stand of these Clippers, the Spurs quest to unthrone Golden State and get one more ring; and Lebron’s drive for Cleveland.

There is plenty of time for all of the bigger picture stories, right now we are focusing on the first round of the playoffs. The Eastern Conference is filled with interesting match-ups while the Western Conference has a grand total of… one interesting match-up. Let’s take a look at the odds courtesy of 5Dimes for all of the first round match-ups. Reminder that you can get bet on any of these at http://www.5Dimes.com Continue Reading…