Who will be the first coach to leave their post in the 2018-2019 NBA Season? 

We’re barely a week into the season so thinking about this kind of thing seems stupid, but Bovada posted this prop so let’s take a look at it. Rooting for someone to lose their job is kind of gross, but this is the NBA and it’s a business. Winning is the only thing that matters to some teams and even if it’s not the coach’s fault, someone has to go. These guys still get paid on their contracts if they are fired and there are always more opportunities out there for some with NBA coaching experience. So let’s take a look at the odds.

Who will be the first coach to leave their post in the 2018-2019 NBA Season?

Luke Walton +175Tom Thibodeau +200Fred Hoiberg +500Billy Donovan +750
Scott Brooks +1000Dave Joerger +1200Terry Stotts +1200Tyronn Lue +1200

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Let’s go through these candidates one by one and see if we can find some value.

Luke Walton +175: The spotlight always shines brightest in Los Angeles and with the Lakers starting 0-3 with LeBron James, it’s easy to see why people are thinking that. He wasn’t the coach that was brought in by Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka, but he’s had the support of Jeannie Buss which has kept him in this position. Personally, I think he’s a great coach and the offense they are running is next level. They’ve been in these games that they’ve lost and it will just take some time to gel. I wouldn’t bet him, but a few more losses and that spotlight is going to keep getting brighter. A few wins would take him off this list, a few losses might end this competition once and for all.

Tom Thibodeau +200: The situation with the Wolves is ugly right now. Jimmy Butler wants out and the young stars of Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins can’t do it without him. Thibodeau was brought in to win and when this team takes fifty cents on the dollar for Butler, I don’t believe that they can. This feels like the best bet because of Thibodeau’s dual role as team president. This Butler situation is his fault and there’s no one above him to blame.

Fred Hoiberg +500: I thought the Bulls defense would be bad with Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker, but I didn’t realize it would be unplayable. Hoiberg has gotten a ton of rope with this team, but there isn’t much left. I doubt he lasts the season.

Billy Donovan +750: Maybe? This team has a ton of injury issues right now that the front office won’t blame him for. That said, this offense always feels stagnant and uncreative. Whether that’s Russell Westbrook and he doesn’t want to change things up or something Donovan doesn’t do is something we won’t know until he’s coaching elsewhere.

Scott Brooks +1000: This one surprised me as I hadn’t seen a lot of buzz about it. The Wizards have had injury issues over the past couple seasons so last year’s step back can’t fully be blamed on him. I don’t see this happening til the offseason. The Wizards have also been known to hold on way too long to coaches. See: Wittman, Randy.

Dave Joerger +1200: The Kings have no business firing a coach unless it’s been shown that he is stunting the development of his players. Based on the minutes of Marvin Bagley and Harry Giles through three games, he might be doing that. Or he’s doing what he’s told. Monitor this situation, but based on these comments I could see him out of here. This is the best play considering the odds.

Terry Stotts +1200: I just don’t see this one. This guy is one of the best coaches in the league and has gotten much more out of this team than a lot of other coaches would.

Tyronn Lue +1200: I don’t think the Cavs would fire their NBA championship winning coach, but if things don’t improve here I could see him leaving the team to preserve his reputation. That said, I still think this team has 8th seed potential and as long as things don’t go too far south I see him sticking it out.

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